2007 · Week 7

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Brian Griese

19·16

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapEagles
  • -0.128EPA / play+0.041
  • 38.4%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.190EPA / rush+0.017
  • 6.6%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.34CPOE-0.87
  • 34.3%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 49.0%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.66
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–5 since 1999

Meetings average 41 points. PHI are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI
2011 · W9CHI @ PHI30–24CHI

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese27/4132210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson17462.70
Adrian Peterson4215.30
Jason McKie155.00
Brian Griese100.00

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb21/3422610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook18794.40
Donovan McNabb2189.00
Correll Buckhalter3134.30
Reggie Brown11212.00
Tony Hunt111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.22