Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.128EPA / play+0.041
- 38.4%Success rate45.5%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.190EPA / rush+0.017
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.34CPOE-0.87
- 34.3%Third-down rate43.4%
- 49.0%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.34Points / drive1.66
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. PHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:08 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 10:14 | 15 | 89 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 1:01 | 14 | 62 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q2 9:47 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q2 4:08 | 6 | 66 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| PHI | Q2 1:46 | 8 | 53 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| CHI | Q2 0:22 | 3 | 7 | End of half | 3–9 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 60 | Field goal | 6–9 |
| PHI | Q3 8:04 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 6–9 |
| CHI | Q3 4:53 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 9–9 |
| PHI | Q4 14:52 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 9–9 |
| CHI | Q4 13:23 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 12–9 |
| PHI | Q4 9:21 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 12–16 |
| CHI | Q4 4:57 | 4 | -8 | Punt | 12–16 |
| PHI | Q4 4:02 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 12–16 |
| CHI | Q4 1:52 | 10 | 97 | Touchdown | 19–16 |
| PHI | Q4 0:09 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 19–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 27/41 | 322 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 17 | 46 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/34 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 18 | 79 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tony Hunt | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.22