Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:40 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:38 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:49 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 3:22 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 1:14 | 5 | 16 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:01 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–0 |
| KC | Q2 11:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 10:43 | 11 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 6–0 |
| KC | Q2 5:55 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 3:21 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 6–0 |
| KC | Q2 1:37 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 0:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–0 |
| KC | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–0 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–0 |
| KC | Q3 13:09 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q3 11:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–0 |
| KC | Q3 9:48 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| LV | Q3 8:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–0 |
| KC | Q3 7:04 | 5 | 76 | Missed field goal | 6–0 |
| LV | Q3 3:28 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| KC | Q3 2:37 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–7 |
| LV | Q3 1:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| KC | Q4 14:40 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 12–7 |
| LV | Q4 11:30 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 12–10 |
| KC | Q4 5:49 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 12–10 |
| LV | Q4 1:46 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 12–10 |
| KC | Q4 0:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 12–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 16/31 | 177 | 0 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 24 | 112 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kris Wilson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Samie Parker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.