Closing spread
DAL -9.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.109
- 43.2%Success rate45.8%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.071
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.23CPOE+4.58
- 35.8%Third-down rate43.2%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.51Points / drive2.23
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 6:36 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q1 0:43 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 11:29 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 9:49 | 8 | 45 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 5:11 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 3:26 | 5 | 47 | Opp touchdown | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:39 | 8 | 49 | Missed field goal | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q3 13:16 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q3 11:09 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q3 9:36 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| MIN | Q3 6:55 | 8 | 45 | Opp touchdown | 14–21 |
| MIN | Q3 2:52 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 14–21 |
| DAL | Q4 14:53 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 14–21 |
| MIN | Q4 11:58 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| DAL | Q4 11:51 | 3 | -5 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q4 10:34 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 14–24 |
| DAL | Q4 8:03 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q4 6:21 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–24 |
| DAL | Q4 5:36 | 9 | 64 | Turnover on downs | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q4 0:23 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 14–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 6/19 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 31/39 | 277 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 19 | 96 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.58