Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
48
Model margin
+4.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.024
- 41.4%Success rate46.0%
- -0.065EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.091
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.41CPOE+5.31
- 37.1%Third-down rate45.6%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.32Points / drive1.86
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 20/31 | 272 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 14/21 | 226 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 31 | 130 | 4.2 | 3 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.54