Closing spread
NYG -9.5
Total
39
Model margin
+4.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.254EPA / play-0.038
- 36.7%Success rate44.2%
- -0.277EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.008
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -5.63CPOE-5.32
- 31.5%Third-down rate41.9%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 0.92Points / drive1.67
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 23/38 | 209 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 88 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/31 | 146 | 2 | 1 |
| Anthony Wright | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 18 | 107 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+4.84