Closing spread
SEA -9
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:25 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:40 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 5:59 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:32 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 1:02 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 10:15 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q2 10:03 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 8:32 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q2 6:28 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:00 | 3 | -17 | Punt | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q2 2:16 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:38 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q2 0:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:23 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 3–16 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LA | Q3 14:47 | 8 | 62 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| SEA | Q3 10:33 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| LA | Q3 6:29 | 3 | -8 | Turnover | 6–20 |
| SEA | Q3 5:34 | 3 | -6 | Field goal | 6–23 |
| LA | Q3 4:00 | 10 | 51 | Missed field goal | 6–23 |
| SEA | Q4 14:09 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 6–23 |
| LA | Q4 11:19 | 7 | 24 | Turnover | 6–23 |
| SEA | Q4 9:06 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 6–26 |
| LA | Q4 7:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–26 |
| SEA | Q4 6:50 | 2 | 14 | Touchdown | 6–33 |
| LA | Q4 6:08 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–33 |
| SEA | Q4 5:18 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 6–33 |
| LA | Q4 3:02 | 7 | 44 | Turnover | 6–33 |
| SEA | Q4 1:20 | 2 | 21 | End of half | 6–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 18/35 | 195 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 19 | 47 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.