2007 · Week 8

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

31·10

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Monster Park · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NO -1

Total

40

Model margin

-0.7est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge map49ers
  • +0.011EPA / play-0.254
  • 47.6%Success rate36.7%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback-0.277
  • -0.101EPA / rush-0.213
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +4.63CPOE-5.63
  • 46.0%Third-down rate31.5%
  • 69.1%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.69Points / drive0.92
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SF @ NO26–21SF
2022 · W12NO @ SF0–13SF
2020 · W10SF @ NO13–27NO
2019 · W14SF @ NO48–46SF
2016 · W9NO @ SF41–23NO
2014 · W10SF @ NO27–24SF
2013 · W11SF @ NO20–23NO
2012 · W12SF @ NO31–21SF

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees31/3933640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush10646.40
Aaron Stecker12352.90
Pierre Thomas393.00
David Patten1-6-6.00

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith22/4319010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore12413.40
Maurice Hicks2199.50
Alex Smith4164.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.70