Closing spread
NO -1
Total
40
Model margin
-0.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.254
- 47.6%Success rate36.7%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.277
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.213
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- +4.63CPOE-5.63
- 46.0%Third-down rate31.5%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.69Points / drive0.92
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:59 | 4 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 11:23 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 7:59 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:19 | 6 | 40 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| SF | Q1 3:25 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NO | Q2 13:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SF | Q2 12:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NO | Q2 10:29 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| SF | Q2 6:45 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 17–0 |
| NO | Q2 4:28 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–0 |
| SF | Q2 0:50 | 5 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 24–0 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 24–0 |
| SF | Q3 13:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–0 |
| NO | Q3 11:32 | 5 | 40 | Turnover | 24–0 |
| SF | Q3 9:04 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 24–3 |
| NO | Q3 6:05 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 24–3 |
| SF | Q3 2:18 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 24–3 |
| NO | Q3 0:03 | 11 | 77 | Touchdown | 31–3 |
| SF | Q4 8:47 | 15 | 85 | Touchdown | 31–10 |
| NO | Q4 4:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 31–10 |
| NO | Q4 4:15 | 2 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 31–10 |
| NO | Q4 2:40 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 31–10 |
| SF | Q4 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/39 | 336 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 22/43 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.70