2007 · Week 8

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

23·16

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kelly Holcomb

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapVikings
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.033
  • 45.5%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback-0.029
  • +0.017EPA / rush-0.037
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -0.87CPOE-0.23
  • 43.4%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 49.7%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.51
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. MIN are 4-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb23/3633310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook21462.21
Donovan McNabb3134.30
Correll Buckhalter231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Schobel11120

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brooks Bollinger7/109400
Kelly Holcomb7/168810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson20703.50
Chester Taylor6193.20
Brooks Bollinger2157.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.09
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.83