Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.033
- 45.5%Success rate43.2%
- +0.053EPA / dropback-0.029
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.037
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- -0.87CPOE-0.23
- 43.4%Third-down rate35.8%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.66Points / drive1.51
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. MIN are 4-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 12:34 | 12 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 6:42 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 6:41 | 4 | -9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 5:32 | 9 | 72 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 0:45 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PHI | Q2 12:06 | 12 | 93 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| MIN | Q2 5:46 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–7 |
| PHI | Q2 4:05 | 4 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| MIN | Q2 2:19 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| PHI | Q2 0:58 | 5 | 33 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–10 |
| PHI | Q3 13:22 | 5 | 36 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| MIN | Q3 10:46 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 20–10 |
| PHI | Q3 9:10 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 20–10 |
| MIN | Q3 7:23 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| PHI | Q3 1:42 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 20–13 |
| MIN | Q4 13:15 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 20–16 |
| PHI | Q4 8:53 | 8 | 66 | Field goal | 23–16 |
| MIN | Q4 5:09 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 23–16 |
| PHI | Q4 3:20 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 23–16 |
| MIN | Q4 0:15 | 1 | 18 | End of half | 23–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/36 | 333 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 21 | 46 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schobel | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 7/10 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 7/16 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.83