Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
48
Model margin
+3.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play+0.024
- 41.8%Success rate46.0%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.091
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- +5.79CPOE+5.31
- 47.9%Third-down rate45.6%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.10Points / drive1.86
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 11:55 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 5:11 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q1 2:42 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PIT | Q2 14:51 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q2 7:42 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| PIT | Q2 2:16 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| CIN | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–6 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–6 |
| PIT | Q3 13:48 | 12 | 67 | Turnover | 21–6 |
| CIN | Q3 6:09 | 17 | 93 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| PIT | Q4 13:02 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| CIN | Q4 6:09 | 6 | 54 | Turnover | 24–13 |
| PIT | Q4 3:16 | 6 | 22 | End of half | 24–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19/26 | 230 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 22 | 126 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/31 | 205 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Glenn Holt | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.06