Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
46
Model margin
+1.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.041
- 45.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.071EPA / rush+0.017
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- +4.58CPOE-0.87
- 43.2%Third-down rate43.4%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 2.23Points / drive1.66
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–27 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 14:42 | 2 | 4 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 13:22 | 3 | 31 | Touchdown | 6–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:17 | 1 | 2 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 11:13 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q1 7:38 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q1 2:14 | 11 | 38 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 12:33 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q2 7:43 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 4:21 | 5 | 59 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:33 | 3 | 14 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| PHI | Q2 0:44 | 1 | -3 | End of half | 21–7 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 64 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| PHI | Q3 12:44 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 28–10 |
| DAL | Q3 7:43 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 35–10 |
| PHI | Q3 4:28 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 35–10 |
| DAL | Q3 0:47 | 10 | 80 | Field goal | 38–10 |
| PHI | Q4 9:57 | 13 | 76 | Touchdown | 38–17 |
| DAL | Q4 5:51 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 38–17 |
| PHI | Q4 3:25 | 9 | 36 | Turnover | 38–17 |
| DAL | Q4 1:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 20/25 | 324 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 27/46 | 264 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.81