Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.038
- 45.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.008
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.58CPOE-5.32
- 43.2%Third-down rate41.9%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.23Points / drive1.67
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 20/28 | 247 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/34 | 236 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 23 | 95 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.87