Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.075
- 43.2%Success rate43.6%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.109
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.23CPOE+4.25
- 35.8%Third-down rate42.9%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.51Points / drive2.16
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:50 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 7:18 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 4:44 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 1:20 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 14:43 | 12 | 74 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q2 6:30 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–10 |
| GB | Q2 2:50 | 13 | 64 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| MIN | Q3 9:29 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–20 |
| GB | Q3 7:23 | 10 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–27 |
| MIN | Q3 2:24 | 8 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 0–27 |
| GB | Q3 0:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–27 |
| MIN | Q4 14:30 | 7 | 58 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| GB | Q4 11:32 | 9 | 96 | Touchdown | 0–34 |
| MIN | Q4 5:38 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 0–34 |
| GB | Q4 3:56 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–34 |
| MIN | Q4 1:51 | 5 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 0–34 |
| GB | Q4 0:51 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 16/26 | 176 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 33/46 | 351 | 3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2/2 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 25 | 119 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.82