2007 · Week 10 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.040
- 45.5%Success rate41.8%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.089
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.199
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.87CPOE+2.48
- 43.4%Third-down rate41.1%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.66Points / drive1.59
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 20/28 | 251 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tony Hunt | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 23/34 | 215 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 30 | 137 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.73