Closing spread
SEA -9.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+7.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.254EPA / play+0.006
- 36.7%Success rate45.1%
- -0.277EPA / dropback+0.107
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- -5.63CPOE+2.40
- 31.5%Third-down rate35.7%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 0.92Points / drive1.77
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 12/28 | 114 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 27/40 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 28 | 87 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.35