Closing spread
NO -10.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 12:45 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 11:03 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:10 | 12 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 2:58 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 1:24 | 15 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 8:37 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 7:45 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| NO | Q2 5:37 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:52 | 4 | 13 | End of half | 17–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 73 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| NO | Q3 8:55 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 20–7 |
| LA | Q3 7:27 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| NO | Q3 4:43 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 27–7 |
| LA | Q3 3:27 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 34–7 |
| NO | Q4 14:18 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 34–15 |
| LA | Q4 11:36 | 5 | 45 | Punt | 34–15 |
| NO | Q4 8:52 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 34–21 |
| LA | Q4 4:42 | 6 | 26 | Field goal | 37–21 |
| NO | Q4 1:55 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 37–29 |
| LA | Q4 0:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 37–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/36 | 272 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.