Closing spread
GB -10
Total
37
Model margin
+6.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.075
- 38.9%Success rate43.6%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.109
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.47CPOE+4.25
- 36.1%Third-down rate42.9%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.27Points / drive2.16
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:33 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:57 | 7 | 32 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 7:54 | 5 | 53 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| GB | Q1 5:03 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q1 1:48 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 14:47 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| CAR | Q2 11:13 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 3–14 |
| GB | Q2 8:29 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CAR | Q2 7:00 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 3–14 |
| GB | Q2 5:12 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| CAR | Q2 1:16 | 7 | 29 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| GB | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–21 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 28 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| CAR | Q3 12:46 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–28 |
| GB | Q3 12:35 | 3 | 5 | Missed field goal | 3–28 |
| CAR | Q3 11:02 | 14 | 61 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| GB | Q3 3:21 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 10–28 |
| CAR | Q4 13:54 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 10–28 |
| GB | Q4 12:29 | 10 | 45 | Punt | 10–28 |
| CAR | Q4 6:02 | 8 | 86 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| GB | Q4 4:22 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 17–31 |
| CAR | Q4 2:41 | 7 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 17–31 |
| GB | Q4 0:50 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 19/37 | 258 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 20 | 87 | 4.3 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/30 | 218 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.55