Closing spread
GB -10
Total
37
Model margin
+6.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.075
- 38.9%Success rate43.6%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.109
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.47CPOE+4.25
- 36.1%Third-down rate42.9%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.27Points / drive2.16
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. GB are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 19/37 | 258 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 20 | 87 | 4.3 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/30 | 218 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.55