Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
38
Model margin
+9.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.128EPA / play+0.006
- 38.4%Success rate45.1%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.107
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.158
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- -3.34CPOE+2.40
- 34.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 49.0%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.34Points / drive1.77
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. SEA are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 24/37 | 266 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 11 | 89 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 30/44 | 337 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.64
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+9.28