2007 · Week 11

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

16·19

Jets

New York

QB Kellen Clemens

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -9.5

Total

40

Model margin

-1.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJets
  • +0.055EPA / play-0.075
  • 41.8%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback-0.065
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.088
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +5.79CPOE+0.41
  • 47.9%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 63.2%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.32
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1PIT @ NYJ34–32PIT
2024 · W7NYJ @ PIT15–37PIT
2022 · W4NYJ @ PIT24–20NYJ
2019 · W16PIT @ NYJ10–16NYJ
2016 · W5NYJ @ PIT13–31PIT
2014 · W10PIT @ NYJ13–20NYJ
2013 · W6PIT @ NYJ19–6PIT
2012 · W2NYJ @ PIT10–27PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00468Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 12:49715Punt0–7
NYJQ1 9:0136Punt0–7
PITQ1 7:0036Punt0–7
NYJQ1 5:22928Field goal0–10
PITQ1 1:313-2Punt0–10
NYJQ1 0:4338Punt0–10
PITQ2 14:20982Touchdown7–10
NYJQ2 9:04613Punt7–10
PITQ2 6:06716Turnover7–10
NYJQ2 2:19947Field goal7–13
PITQ3 15:001050Field goal10–13
NYJQ3 8:246-10Punt10–13
PITQ3 5:50854Field goal13–13
NYJQ3 1:34838Turnover on downs13–13
PITQ4 12:16834Field goal16–13
NYJQ4 8:4128Turnover16–13
PITQ4 7:503-3Turnover16–13
NYJQ4 5:5345Turnover on downs16–13
PITQ4 4:1534Punt16–13
NYJQ4 2:231273Field goal16–16
PITQ4 0:2326End of half16–16
NYJOT37Punt16–16
PITOT32Punt16–16
NYJOT36Field goal16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger15/2519511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker21522.50
Najeh Davenport8394.90
Carey Davis2168.00
Ben Roethlisberger252.50

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kellen Clemens14/3116211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones301173.90
Kellen Clemens11515.00
Leon Washington2105.00
Brad Smith199.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.98
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-1.34