Closing spread
PIT -9.5
Total
40
Model margin
-1.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.075
- 41.8%Success rate41.4%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.065
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.088
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- +5.79CPOE+0.41
- 47.9%Third-down rate37.1%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 2.10Points / drive1.32
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 15/25 | 195 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 21 | 52 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Carey Davis | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Clemens | 14/31 | 162 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 30 | 117 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.98
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.34