Closing spread
STL -3
Total
39
Model margin
-0.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:51 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 6:19 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 4:21 | 10 | 37 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SF | Q1 0:10 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 14:46 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| SF | Q2 9:42 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 7:21 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SF | Q2 4:39 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 2:10 | 9 | -4 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SF | Q2 0:28 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q3 13:58 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SF | Q3 11:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q3 9:30 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SF | Q3 5:03 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q3 2:32 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SF | Q3 1:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q4 14:15 | 6 | 16 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| SF | Q4 10:22 | 9 | 40 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| LA | Q4 6:07 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–6 |
| SF | Q4 3:52 | 6 | 40 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| LA | Q4 1:51 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–9 |
| SF | Q4 1:28 | 8 | 68 | Turnover | 13–9 |
| LA | Q4 0:00 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.66
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.