2007 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

23·28

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 77°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -11

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.109
  • 41.8%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.230
  • -0.199EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +2.48CPOE+4.58
  • 41.1%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.23
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 38–16 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS
2022 · W4WAS @ DAL10–25DAL

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell33/5434821
Antwaan Randle El1/11900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis12363.00
Jason Campbell2189.00
Ladell Betts284.00
Antwaan Randle El100.00

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/3229341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber15432.90
Julius Jones9273.00
Tony Romo122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.59