2007 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 77°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
DAL -11
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.109
- 41.8%Success rate45.8%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.199EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.48CPOE+4.58
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.2%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.59Points / drive2.23
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 39–16 since 1999
DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 29 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 11:28 | 7 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 7:52 | 7 | 38 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 4:06 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 3:05 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 0:19 | 10 | 64 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 8:37 | 14 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q2 1:16 | 5 | 32 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| DAL | Q3 12:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q3 10:20 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 10–7 |
| DAL | Q3 5:42 | 9 | 39 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q3 2:09 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| DAL | Q4 15:00 | 6 | 92 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| WAS | Q4 11:32 | 4 | 41 | Field goal | 16–21 |
| DAL | Q4 9:58 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 16–28 |
| WAS | Q4 7:50 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 23–28 |
| DAL | Q4 3:45 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 23–28 |
| WAS | Q4 2:51 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 23–28 |
| DAL | Q4 1:39 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 23–28 |
| WAS | Q4 0:34 | 6 | 10 | End of half | 23–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 33/54 | 348 | 2 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/32 | 293 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.59