Closing spread
NO -3
Total
42
Model margin
-0.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.088
- 47.6%Success rate38.9%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- +4.63CPOE-5.47
- 46.0%Third-down rate36.1%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.69Points / drive1.27
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 14:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 12:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:19 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 8:50 | 4 | -9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:39 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 6:00 | 5 | 12 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 4:24 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 1:44 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| NO | Q2 14:43 | 13 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q2 7:33 | 4 | 2 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| NO | Q2 5:39 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q2 3:02 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| NO | Q2 0:25 | 4 | 21 | Missed field goal | 10–6 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| CAR | Q3 10:12 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 17–6 |
| NO | Q3 7:50 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 24–6 |
| CAR | Q3 6:14 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 24–6 |
| NO | Q3 5:54 | 10 | 37 | Touchdown | 31–6 |
| CAR | Q3 0:47 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 31–6 |
| NO | Q4 14:13 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 31–6 |
| CAR | Q4 10:14 | 6 | 26 | Turnover | 31–6 |
| NO | Q4 8:41 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 31–6 |
| CAR | Q4 6:17 | 10 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 31–6 |
| NO | Q4 3:08 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 31–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/36 | 260 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Jamie Martin | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 10/22 | 95 | 0 | 2 |
| Matt Moore | 8/14 | 66 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 9 | -5 | -0.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.43