Closing spread
KC -4
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Croyle | 12/23 | 145 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolby Smith | 31 | 150 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Brodie Croyle | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.80
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.