Closing spread
KC -4
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:28 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:02 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:02 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 3–7 |
| KC | Q1 0:41 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:35 | 5 | 11 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| KC | Q2 10:39 | 10 | 68 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| LV | Q2 5:30 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| KC | Q2 4:29 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 6–10 |
| LV | Q2 3:25 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 6–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:32 | 2 | -9 | End of half | 6–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 6–10 |
| KC | Q3 12:18 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 6–10 |
| LV | Q3 9:56 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| KC | Q3 6:04 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| LV | Q3 0:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–17 |
| KC | Q4 14:44 | 8 | 32 | Missed field goal | 13–17 |
| LV | Q4 10:51 | 3 | 77 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| KC | Q4 9:34 | 11 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 20–17 |
| LV | Q4 4:22 | 6 | 53 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Croyle | 12/23 | 145 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolby Smith | 31 | 150 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Brodie Croyle | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.80
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.