Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:48 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:51 | 1 | -1 | Safety | 0–2 |
| LA | Q1 8:46 | 1 | 53 | Touchdown | 6–9 |
| SEA | Q1 8:30 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–9 |
| LA | Q1 8:14 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| SEA | Q1 7:19 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 7–9 |
| LA | Q1 5:55 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–9 |
| LA | Q1 4:01 | 6 | 30 | Touchdown | 7–16 |
| SEA | Q1 0:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–16 |
| LA | Q2 14:14 | 11 | 60 | Field goal | 7–19 |
| SEA | Q2 8:07 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–19 |
| LA | Q2 6:01 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–19 |
| SEA | Q2 4:51 | 9 | 49 | Turnover | 7–19 |
| LA | Q2 1:59 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–19 |
| SEA | Q2 0:11 | 3 | 29 | End of half | 7–19 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–19 |
| SEA | Q3 13:39 | 8 | 56 | Field goal | 10–19 |
| LA | Q3 9:36 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 10–19 |
| SEA | Q3 6:29 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–19 |
| LA | Q3 5:59 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 10–19 |
| SEA | Q3 5:13 | 5 | 67 | Touchdown | 17–19 |
| LA | Q3 3:22 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 17–19 |
| SEA | Q3 1:53 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 17–19 |
| LA | Q3 0:34 | 8 | 12 | Punt | 17–19 |
| SEA | Q4 10:47 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–19 |
| LA | Q4 5:57 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 24–19 |
| SEA | Q4 5:07 | 5 | 22 | Missed field goal | 24–19 |
| LA | Q4 2:44 | 10 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 24–19 |
| SEA | Q4 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/38 | 249 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.