Closing spread
ARI -10
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.254EPA / play-0.037
- 36.7%Success rate42.9%
- -0.277EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.116
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- -5.63CPOE+0.38
- 31.5%Third-down rate36.9%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 0.92Points / drive1.68
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 92 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 10:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 8:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 6:53 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 4:57 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 4:50 | 8 | 32 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 0:36 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SF | Q2 14:03 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| ARI | Q2 11:21 | 1 | 9 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| SF | Q2 10:58 | 2 | 6 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q2 10:22 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| SF | Q2 5:59 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 17–14 |
| ARI | Q2 3:15 | 6 | 3 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| SF | Q2 0:55 | 4 | 22 | Missed field goal | 17–14 |
| ARI | Q2 0:06 | 2 | 55 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 17–21 |
| ARI | Q3 11:30 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 17–21 |
| SF | Q3 7:57 | 4 | 88 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| ARI | Q3 5:47 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 24–21 |
| SF | Q3 0:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–21 |
| ARI | Q4 14:04 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| SF | Q4 9:53 | 9 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 24–28 |
| ARI | Q4 5:43 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 24–28 |
| SF | Q4 4:33 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 31–28 |
| ARI | Q4 1:15 | 6 | 84 | Field goal | 31–31 |
| ARI | OT | 8 | 20 | Punt | 31–31 |
| SF | OT | 3 | 3 | Punt | 31–31 |
| ARI | OT | 6 | 83 | Missed field goal | 31–31 |
| SF | OT | 4 | -2 | Punt | 37–31 |
| ARI | OT | 1 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 37–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 25/39 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 116 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 34/48 | 484 | 2 | 2 |
| Tim Rattay | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.60