Closing spread
ARI -10
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.254EPA / play-0.037
- 36.7%Success rate42.9%
- -0.277EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.116
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- -5.63CPOE+0.38
- 31.5%Third-down rate36.9%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 0.92Points / drive1.68
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 25/39 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 116 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 34/48 | 484 | 2 | 2 |
| Tim Rattay | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.60