Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
47
Model margin
+4.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.024
- 42.4%Success rate46.0%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.091
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.31CPOE+5.31
- 41.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.43Points / drive1.86
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. CIN are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 19/31 | 246 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 32/38 | 283 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 25 | 88 | 3.5 | 1 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.95