Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
40
Model margin
+2.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play+0.055
- 46.0%Success rate41.8%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- +5.31CPOE+5.79
- 45.6%Third-down rate47.9%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.86Points / drive2.10
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 8:23 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 6:45 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 5:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 4:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 2:24 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 0:58 | 3 | 8 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q2 14:50 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q2 8:31 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q2 8:24 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q2 5:45 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 3:28 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q3 13:36 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q3 10:27 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q3 9:36 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| PIT | Q3 6:58 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| CIN | Q3 1:22 | 8 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| PIT | Q4 13:35 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| CIN | Q4 12:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–24 |
| PIT | Q4 11:29 | 6 | 5 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| CIN | Q4 8:31 | 7 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| PIT | Q4 6:18 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 10–24 |
| CIN | Q4 2:20 | 7 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| PIT | Q4 1:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 17/44 | 183 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/32 | 184 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 28 | 87 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Gary Russell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.98