Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
40
Model margin
+2.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play+0.055
- 46.0%Success rate41.8%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- +5.31CPOE+5.79
- 45.6%Third-down rate47.9%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.86Points / drive2.10
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 17/44 | 183 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/32 | 184 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 28 | 87 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Gary Russell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.98