Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play+0.109
- 43.6%Success rate45.8%
- +0.184EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.25CPOE+4.58
- 42.9%Third-down rate43.2%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.16Points / drive2.23
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 54.6 points. DAL are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:32 | 6 | 42 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| GB | Q1 8:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q1 6:49 | 7 | 31 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| GB | Q1 3:15 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q1 2:58 | 3 | 41 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| GB | Q1 1:14 | 4 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| DAL | Q1 0:01 | 3 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| GB | Q2 13:20 | 7 | 27 | Turnover | 10–20 |
| DAL | Q2 10:11 | 4 | 10 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| GB | Q2 9:53 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 10–27 |
| DAL | Q2 7:35 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 10–27 |
| GB | Q2 5:23 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| DAL | Q2 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–27 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 17–27 |
| GB | Q3 12:20 | 12 | 59 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| DAL | Q3 5:15 | 10 | 69 | Turnover | 24–27 |
| GB | Q4 14:08 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 24–27 |
| DAL | Q4 12:20 | 9 | 43 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| GB | Q4 7:51 | 6 | 39 | Field goal | 27–34 |
| DAL | Q4 5:03 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 27–37 |
| GB | Q4 1:03 | 4 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 27–37 |
| DAL | Q4 0:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/26 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 5/14 | 56 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 14 | 94 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/30 | 309 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.51