2007 · Week 13

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

27·37

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.075EPA / play+0.109
  • 43.6%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.184EPA / dropback+0.230
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +4.25CPOE+4.58
  • 42.9%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 2.16Points / drive2.23
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 55.8 points. DAL are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL
2015 · W14DAL @ GB7–28GB

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/2620110
Brett Favre5/145602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant14946.72
Aaron Rodgers5306.00

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo19/3030941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber17814.80
Julius Jones9262.90
Tony Romo2-2-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.51