2007 · Week 13

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

21·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Rex Grossman

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

40

Model margin

-1.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBears
  • -0.038EPA / play-0.128
  • 44.2%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.008EPA / rush-0.190
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -5.32CPOE-3.34
  • 41.9%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.34
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning16/2719512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Ward241546.41
Reuben Droughns10252.51
Eli Manning122.00
Ahmad Bradshaw122.00
Domenik Hixon1-8-8.00

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman25/4629610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson22673.00
Devin Hester111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.64
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.67