Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
40
Model margin
-1.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.128
- 44.2%Success rate38.4%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.190
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- -5.32CPOE-3.34
- 41.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 1.67Points / drive1.34
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 31 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 13:06 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 9:58 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 6:21 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 1:46 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 13:25 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q2 12:05 | 4 | 32 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CHI | Q2 10:25 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q2 8:55 | 3 | 39 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CHI | Q2 7:51 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NYG | Q2 4:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q2 2:53 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NYG | Q3 14:03 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| CHI | Q3 13:56 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| NYG | Q3 10:52 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–16 |
| CHI | Q3 9:19 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–16 |
| NYG | Q3 7:09 | 14 | 69 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| CHI | Q3 0:13 | 4 | 45 | Punt | 7–16 |
| NYG | Q4 13:05 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–16 |
| CHI | Q4 12:39 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–16 |
| NYG | Q4 11:45 | 13 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–16 |
| CHI | Q4 6:54 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–16 |
| NYG | Q4 4:55 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| CHI | Q4 1:33 | 9 | 36 | End of half | 21–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/27 | 195 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 24 | 154 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Reuben Droughns | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 25/46 | 296 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 22 | 67 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.67