Closing spread
SD -6
Total
37
Model margin
+1.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:08 | 5 | 44 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 10:50 | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| KC | Q1 5:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q1 3:40 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| KC | Q1 2:53 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q1 2:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| KC | Q1 0:28 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 13:57 | 6 | 55 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| KC | Q2 11:16 | 10 | 64 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 5:23 | 5 | 51 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| KC | Q2 3:29 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 1:42 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| KC | Q2 1:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q3 13:35 | 4 | 43 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| KC | Q3 12:16 | 12 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 5:48 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 17–10 |
| KC | Q3 3:15 | 8 | 29 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q4 14:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| KC | Q4 13:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q4 12:55 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| KC | Q4 10:15 | 10 | 34 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q4 5:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–10 |
| KC | Q4 3:38 | 3 | 22 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q4 2:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–10 |
| KC | Q4 1:48 | 5 | 10 | Turnover on downs | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q4 1:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 19/34 | 186 | 1 | 2 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 2/6 | 41 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolby Smith | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kris Wilson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.