Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play+0.041
- 45.1%Success rate45.5%
- +0.107EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.158EPA / rush+0.017
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.40CPOE-0.87
- 35.7%Third-down rate43.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.77Points / drive1.66
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/34 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 64 | 12.8 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 19/42 | 220 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 21 | 93 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 1 |
| A.J. Feeley | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.68