2007 · Week 13

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

28·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB A.J. Feeley

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapEagles
  • +0.006EPA / play+0.041
  • 45.1%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.107EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.158EPA / rush+0.017
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.40CPOE-0.87
  • 35.7%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.66
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 14:39418Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 13:48565Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 11:563-2Punt7–7
PHIQ1 9:5634Turnover7–7
SEAQ1 8:4438Touchdown14–7
PHIQ1 7:21653Field goal14–10
SEAQ1 5:141255Missed field goal14–10
PHIQ2 13:0333Punt20–10
SEAQ2 11:26143Touchdown21–10
PHIQ2 11:16460Touchdown21–17
SEAQ2 9:06416Punt21–17
PHIQ2 6:341449Turnover on downs21–17
SEAQ2 0:0310End of half21–17
SEAQ3 15:0025Turnover21–17
PHIQ3 14:05440Touchdown21–24
SEAQ3 12:42418Punt21–24
PHIQ3 11:3630Punt21–24
SEAQ3 10:39353Touchdown28–24
PHIQ3 9:13632Missed field goal28–24
SEAQ3 6:40524Punt28–24
PHIQ3 4:4433Punt28–24
SEAQ3 3:2310Turnover28–24
PHIQ3 3:16520Turnover28–24
SEAQ3 1:09622Turnover on downs28–24
PHIQ4 13:4039Punt28–24
SEAQ4 12:161041Punt28–24
PHIQ4 7:5536Punt28–24
SEAQ4 6:2838Punt28–24
PHIQ4 4:20716Turnover on downs28–24
SEAQ4 1:5633Punt28–24
PHIQ4 1:1633Turnover28–24
SEAQ4 0:1400End of half28–24

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck19/3418721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander20653.31
Maurice Morris56412.81
Matt Hasselbeck2-1-0.50

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
A.J. Feeley19/4222014

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook21934.41
Correll Buckhalter4379.31
A.J. Feeley4143.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.68