Closing spread
SEA -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play+0.006
- 42.9%Success rate45.1%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.107
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.38CPOE+2.40
- 36.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.68Points / drive1.77
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 35 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:00 | 6 | 28 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 8:51 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 5:50 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q1 0:46 | 6 | 24 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 13:26 | 4 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| ARI | Q2 11:47 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 9:45 | 4 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| ARI | Q2 7:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–24 |
| SEA | Q2 5:10 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–24 |
| ARI | Q2 2:50 | 5 | 26 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| SEA | Q2 1:04 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| ARI | Q2 0:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–27 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–27 |
| ARI | Q3 12:12 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 7–27 |
| SEA | Q3 9:43 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–27 |
| ARI | Q3 7:40 | 16 | 88 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| SEA | Q3 0:57 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| ARI | Q3 0:56 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| SEA | Q3 0:49 | 11 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–34 |
| ARI | Q4 10:42 | 4 | -12 | Safety | 14–36 |
| SEA | Q4 9:25 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–36 |
| ARI | Q4 6:55 | 4 | 44 | Opp touchdown | 14–42 |
| ARI | Q4 5:29 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–42 |
| SEA | Q4 2:27 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–42 |
| ARI | Q4 1:45 | 3 | 29 | Turnover | 21–42 |
| SEA | Q4 0:58 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 28/46 | 337 | 3 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/33 | 272 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.01