2007 · Week 14
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
39
Model margin
+7.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.128EPA / play-0.040
- 38.4%Success rate41.8%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.199
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.34CPOE+2.48
- 34.3%Third-down rate41.1%
- 49.0%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.34Points / drive1.59
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 27/45 | 295 | 1 | 2 |
| Rex Grossman | 2/6 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 35 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Collins | 15/20 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 10/16 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 36 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Todd Collins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.02