2007 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

16·13

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.038EPA / play+0.041
  • 44.2%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.008EPA / rush+0.017
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -5.32CPOE-0.87
  • 41.9%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.66
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00668Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 11:473-4Punt0–7
PHIQ1 9:57924Punt0–7
NYGQ1 4:5938Punt0–7
PHIQ1 3:2434Punt0–7
NYGQ1 2:311463Field goal3–7
PHIQ2 11:06414Punt3–7
NYGQ2 8:40844Punt3–7
PHIQ2 3:45617Punt3–7
NYGQ2 1:23845Field goal6–7
NYGQ3 15:003-5Turnover6–7
PHIQ3 14:0231Field goal6–10
NYGQ3 12:4243Punt6–10
PHIQ3 11:16617Punt6–10
NYGQ3 8:263-3Punt6–10
PHIQ3 7:2412Turnover6–10
NYGQ3 7:10342Touchdown13–10
PHIQ3 5:5936Punt13–10
NYGQ3 3:54661Field goal16–10
PHIQ3 0:481252Field goal16–13
NYGQ4 8:26456Turnover16–13
PHIQ4 5:51851Turnover on downs16–13
NYGQ4 1:5739Punt16–13
PHIQ4 0:53350Missed field goal16–13
NYGQ4 0:0100End of half16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning17/3121910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs22703.20
Reuben Droughns33411.30
Eli Manning273.50

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb20/3017910
Greg Lewis0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook201165.80
Donovan McNabb4112.80
Correll Buckhalter294.50
Reggie Brown155.00
Thomas Tapeh100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.62