Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play+0.041
- 44.2%Success rate45.5%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.008EPA / rush+0.017
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- -5.32CPOE-0.87
- 41.9%Third-down rate43.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.67Points / drive1.66
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/31 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 22 | 70 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 20/30 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 20 | 116 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.62