Closing spread
SD -1
Total
40
Model margin
+2.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 3-9-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 13/21 | 121 | 0 | 2 |
| Kerry Collins | 1/3 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 30 | 113 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Chris Brown | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.