Closing spread
SD -1
Total
40
Model margin
+2.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 3-9-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:03 | 7 | 46 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:59 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 7:18 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 5:19 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 3:48 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 1:31 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q2 14:32 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 12:51 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q2 10:17 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 8:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q2 8:14 | 8 | 42 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 2:39 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q2 0:51 | 4 | -2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q3 13:43 | 4 | 39 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q3 11:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q3 9:37 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q3 7:17 | 4 | 19 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 5:17 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q3 3:27 | 7 | 42 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q4 14:21 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TEN | Q4 10:36 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q4 9:01 | 4 | 48 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| TEN | Q4 7:29 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q4 2:24 | 15 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| TEN | Q4 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| LAC | OT | 7 | 27 | Punt | 17–17 |
| TEN | OT | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LAC | OT | 6 | 48 | Touchdown | 23–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 13/21 | 121 | 0 | 2 |
| Kerry Collins | 1/3 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 30 | 113 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Chris Brown | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.