Closing spread
MIN -10.5
Total
43
Model margin
+5.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.128EPA / play-0.033
- 38.4%Success rate43.2%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.037
- 6.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- -3.34CPOE-0.23
- 34.3%Third-down rate35.8%
- 49.0%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.34Points / drive1.51
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 13:12 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:10 | 3 | 13 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 10:41 | 8 | 66 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q1 5:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 4:22 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q1 2:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 0:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 13:29 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q2 12:27 | 5 | 23 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 10:07 | 7 | 24 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| MIN | Q2 6:57 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 6–3 |
| CHI | Q2 2:42 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 6–3 |
| MIN | Q2 0:58 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 6–3 |
| CHI | Q2 0:43 | 2 | 12 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| MIN | Q2 0:30 | 3 | 28 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–6 |
| CHI | Q3 13:37 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–6 |
| MIN | Q3 12:37 | 4 | 73 | Touchdown | 13–12 |
| CHI | Q3 10:29 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–12 |
| MIN | Q3 8:55 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–12 |
| CHI | Q3 8:44 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–12 |
| MIN | Q3 6:40 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–12 |
| CHI | Q3 4:41 | 5 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 13–12 |
| MIN | Q3 2:14 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| CHI | Q4 10:56 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 13–20 |
| MIN | Q4 7:23 | 7 | 48 | Punt | 13–20 |
| CHI | Q4 2:45 | 5 | 35 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| MIN | Q4 1:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 22/38 | 184 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 18/29 | 249 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Aundrae Allison | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.48
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.63