Closing spread
GB -7
Total
47
Model margin
+0.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 3-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:39 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:11 | 2 | 24 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:21 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| GB | Q1 1:11 | 4 | 45 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:15 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| GB | Q2 10:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LA | Q2 8:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–14 |
| GB | Q2 6:55 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| LA | Q2 3:54 | 7 | 60 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| GB | Q2 0:37 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–14 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| GB | Q3 11:10 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| LA | Q3 10:21 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 20–14 |
| GB | Q3 6:15 | 3 | 44 | Touchdown | 27–14 |
| LA | Q3 5:58 | 13 | 54 | Missed field goal | 27–14 |
| GB | Q4 14:45 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 30–14 |
| LA | Q4 11:22 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 30–14 |
| GB | Q4 10:12 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 30–14 |
| LA | Q4 9:23 | 10 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 30–14 |
| GB | Q4 5:34 | 4 | 15 | Field goal | 33–14 |
| LA | Q4 3:43 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 33–14 |
| GB | Q4 2:50 | 3 | 26 | End of half | 33–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/30 | 227 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 5 | 1 | 80 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.