Closing spread
DAL -10
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.109
- 45.5%Success rate45.8%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.230
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.87CPOE+4.58
- 43.4%Third-down rate43.2%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.66Points / drive2.23
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–27 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:39 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 9:20 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 7:24 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 6:27 | 5 | 26 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:29 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 3:36 | 10 | 45 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q2 13:38 | 7 | 81 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q2 9:42 | 3 | -1 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q2 8:52 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q2 6:37 | 8 | 27 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q2 2:20 | 7 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| DAL | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–3 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q3 12:55 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DAL | Q3 11:08 | 5 | 61 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| PHI | Q3 8:26 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 7–6 |
| DAL | Q3 5:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–6 |
| PHI | Q3 4:48 | 12 | 60 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| DAL | Q4 13:27 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 10–6 |
| PHI | Q4 11:28 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–6 |
| DAL | Q4 10:26 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 10–6 |
| PHI | Q4 9:29 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 10–6 |
| DAL | Q4 7:43 | 8 | 25 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| PHI | Q4 2:50 | 4 | 54 | End of half | 10–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/41 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 18 | 81 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 13/36 | 214 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76