Closing spread
DAL -10
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.109
- 45.5%Success rate45.8%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.230
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.87CPOE+4.58
- 43.4%Third-down rate43.2%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.66Points / drive2.23
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/41 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 18 | 81 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 13/36 | 214 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76