2007 · Week 15

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

10·13

Panthers

Carolina

QB Matt Moore

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

37

Model margin

+0.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPanthers
  • +0.006EPA / play-0.088
  • 45.1%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.107EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +2.40CPOE-5.47
  • 35.7%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.27
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck27/4127410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander7172.40
Maurice Morris4153.80
Matt Hasselbeck2115.50
Nate Burleson111.00

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore19/2720800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams15614.11
DeShaun Foster18472.60
Matt Moore252.50
Steve Smith200.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

4.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.56
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.88