Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
37
Model margin
+0.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.088
- 45.1%Success rate38.9%
- +0.107EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.40CPOE-5.47
- 35.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.77Points / drive1.27
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:15 | 5 | 59 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:40 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 7:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 4:37 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 3:14 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 0:59 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 12:18 | 7 | 42 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q2 8:26 | 11 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 1:50 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q2 0:09 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q3 11:41 | 11 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q3 5:18 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q3 2:43 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q4 12:18 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q4 8:23 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| SEA | Q4 2:59 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| CAR | Q4 1:38 | 3 | 40 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| SEA | Q4 1:17 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| CAR | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 27/41 | 274 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 19/27 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.88