Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
34
Model margin
+1.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.132
- 42.4%Success rate37.8%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.0%Explosive rate5.9%
- +1.31CPOE-0.79
- 41.4%Third-down rate34.0%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 1.43Points / drive0.94
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:25 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:23 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:33 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 5:43 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 2:28 | 12 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q2 12:22 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q2 10:48 | 5 | 2 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| KC | Q2 8:31 | 16 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| TEN | Q2 1:47 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 10–14 |
| KC | Q2 0:55 | 3 | 16 | End of half | 10–14 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–14 |
| TEN | Q3 13:20 | 5 | 42 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| KC | Q3 11:07 | 15 | 89 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| TEN | Q3 3:49 | 3 | 60 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| KC | Q3 2:24 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| TEN | Q3 2:10 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 23–17 |
| KC | Q4 14:56 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 23–17 |
| TEN | Q4 11:59 | 10 | 41 | Field goal | 26–17 |
| KC | Q4 5:42 | 5 | 34 | Turnover | 26–17 |
| TEN | Q4 4:10 | 7 | 37 | End of half | 26–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 16/26 | 191 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 24 | 93 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Croyle | 25/43 | 217 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolby Smith | 18 | 82 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brodie Croyle | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Webb | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.02