2007 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 18mph
Closing spread
NYG -6
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.038
- 41.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.199EPA / rush-0.008
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.48CPOE-5.32
- 41.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.67
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Collins | 8/25 | 166 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 126 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Todd Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/52 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 25 | 130 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.79