2007 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 18mph
Closing spread
NYG -6
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.038
- 41.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.199EPA / rush-0.008
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.48CPOE-5.32
- 41.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.67
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 12:16 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 10:30 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 9:44 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 6:58 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 6:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 4:47 | 5 | 25 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 2:23 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q1 0:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q2 13:57 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q2 12:52 | 5 | 67 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| NYG | Q2 10:12 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 6–0 |
| WAS | Q2 8:18 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–0 |
| NYG | Q2 6:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–0 |
| WAS | Q2 5:12 | 6 | 50 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| NYG | Q2 3:07 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| WAS | Q2 1:16 | 6 | 47 | Field goal | 16–3 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 46 | Touchdown | 22–3 |
| NYG | Q3 12:08 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 22–3 |
| WAS | Q3 9:18 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 22–3 |
| NYG | Q3 7:01 | 6 | 48 | Touchdown | 22–10 |
| WAS | Q3 4:37 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 22–10 |
| NYG | Q3 2:34 | 11 | 62 | Missed field goal | 22–10 |
| WAS | Q4 13:10 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 22–10 |
| NYG | Q4 9:53 | 15 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 22–10 |
| WAS | Q4 5:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 22–10 |
| NYG | Q4 4:56 | 8 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 22–10 |
| WAS | Q4 3:14 | 3 | 17 | End of half | 22–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Collins | 8/25 | 166 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 126 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Todd Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/52 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 25 | 130 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.79