Closing spread
GB -9
Total
32
Model margin
-1.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.128
- 43.6%Success rate38.4%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.190
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- +4.25CPOE-3.34
- 42.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 2.16Points / drive1.34
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 41–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 17 | 77 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| GB | Q1 4:15 | 5 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 1:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| GB | Q2 14:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 13:07 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| GB | Q2 11:11 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 9:41 | 9 | 38 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| GB | Q2 4:00 | 2 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| CHI | Q2 3:08 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–6 |
| GB | Q2 2:36 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–6 |
| CHI | Q2 2:19 | 5 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| GB | Q2 0:48 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 7–13 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| CHI | Q3 13:23 | 9 | 28 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| GB | Q3 8:30 | 3 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 7–28 |
| GB | Q3 7:23 | 9 | 51 | Punt | 7–28 |
| CHI | Q3 2:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–28 |
| GB | Q4 15:00 | 9 | 45 | Opp touchdown | 7–35 |
| GB | Q4 11:20 | 12 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 7–35 |
| CHI | Q4 5:17 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–35 |
| GB | Q4 1:05 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 7–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/32 | 153 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 14 | 100 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 8/14 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 30 | 102 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.48
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.90