Closing spread
GB -9
Total
32
Model margin
-1.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.128
- 43.6%Success rate38.4%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.190
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- +4.25CPOE-3.34
- 42.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 2.16Points / drive1.34
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/32 | 153 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 14 | 100 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 8/14 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 30 | 102 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.48
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.90