Closing spread
TEN -9
Total
37
Model margin
+3.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.066
- 41.4%Success rate42.4%
- -0.065EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.139
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- +0.41CPOE+1.31
- 37.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.32Points / drive1.43
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 26/32 | 264 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 21 | 58 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 12/22 | 166 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 23 | 103 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.23