Closing spread
NO -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.011
- 45.5%Success rate47.6%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.072
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.101
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- -0.87CPOE+4.63
- 43.4%Third-down rate46.0%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.66Points / drive1.69
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:15 | 4 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q1 11:07 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 10:52 | 5 | 29 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q1 8:52 | 7 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NO | Q1 5:47 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 14–14 |
| PHI | Q1 4:04 | 4 | 85 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| NO | Q1 1:51 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 21–14 |
| PHI | Q2 14:49 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 24–14 |
| NO | Q2 9:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–14 |
| PHI | Q2 7:34 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 24–14 |
| NO | Q2 5:09 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 24–14 |
| PHI | Q2 3:25 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 24–14 |
| NO | Q2 2:00 | 11 | 40 | Field goal | 24–17 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 72 | Turnover on downs | 24–17 |
| PHI | Q3 9:56 | 15 | 83 | Touchdown | 31–17 |
| NO | Q3 2:55 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 31–20 |
| PHI | Q4 13:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 31–20 |
| NO | Q4 11:16 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 31–23 |
| PHI | Q4 7:19 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 38–23 |
| NO | Q4 2:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 38–23 |
| PHI | Q4 2:09 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 38–23 |
| NO | Q4 0:29 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/35 | 263 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 100 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/45 | 289 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.55