Closing spread
NO -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.011
- 45.5%Success rate47.6%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.072
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.101
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- -0.87CPOE+4.63
- 43.4%Third-down rate46.0%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.66Points / drive1.69
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/35 | 263 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 100 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/45 | 289 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.55