2007 · Week 16
Final
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.033
- 41.8%Success rate43.2%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.199EPA / rush-0.037
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- +2.48CPOE-0.23
- 41.1%Third-down rate35.8%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.59Points / drive1.51
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 13:52 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:02 | 4 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 2–0 |
| MIN | Q1 10:51 | 1 | -1 | Safety | 2–0 |
| WAS | Q1 10:43 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 9–0 |
| MIN | Q1 7:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–0 |
| WAS | Q1 5:06 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–0 |
| MIN | Q1 3:02 | 4 | 18 | Missed field goal | 9–0 |
| WAS | Q1 0:39 | 8 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 9–0 |
| MIN | Q2 11:13 | 3 | 18 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| WAS | Q2 9:45 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–0 |
| MIN | Q2 8:43 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| WAS | Q2 7:54 | 2 | 32 | Touchdown | 16–0 |
| MIN | Q2 7:43 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 16–0 |
| WAS | Q2 4:14 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 22–0 |
| MIN | Q2 0:44 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 22–0 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 22–0 |
| WAS | Q3 11:45 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 25–0 |
| MIN | Q3 6:52 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 25–7 |
| WAS | Q3 2:54 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 25–7 |
| MIN | Q3 2:53 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 25–7 |
| WAS | Q3 1:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 25–7 |
| MIN | Q4 14:49 | 9 | 44 | Touchdown | 25–14 |
| WAS | Q4 10:18 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 32–14 |
| MIN | Q4 5:06 | 13 | 66 | Touchdown | 32–21 |
| WAS | Q4 1:58 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 32–21 |
| MIN | Q4 0:56 | 4 | 14 | End of half | 32–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Collins | 22/29 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1/1 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 25/41 | 220 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Adrian Peterson | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Aundrae Allison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.19