2007 · Week 16

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Todd Collins

32·21

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Tarvaris Jackson

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -6

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapVikings
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.033
  • 41.8%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.199EPA / rush-0.037
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +2.48CPOE-0.23
  • 41.1%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.51
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Todd Collins22/2925420
Clinton Portis1/11510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis20763.81
Ladell Betts5214.20
Todd Collins362.00
Mike Sellers331.00

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson25/4122012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tarvaris Jackson8445.52
Adrian Peterson9273.00
Chester Taylor6142.30
Aundrae Allison133.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.30
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.19