2007 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -9
Total
38
Model margin
+1.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.040
- 45.8%Success rate41.8%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.199
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.58CPOE+2.48
- 43.2%Third-down rate41.1%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 2.23Points / drive1.59
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 7/16 | 86 | 0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 7/11 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 8 | 7 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 6 | -6 | -1.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Collins | 22/31 | 244 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 104 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Ladell Betts | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.30
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.76