Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
42
Model margin
-0.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.128
- 47.6%Success rate38.4%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.190
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- +4.63CPOE-3.34
- 46.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 1.69Points / drive1.34
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 12/27 | 190 | 2 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1/1 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.48
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.56