Closing spread
SD -9
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. OAK are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
0.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.64
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.