Closing spread
SD -9
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 14:48 | 9 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:53 | 7 | 34 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:55 | 2 | -4 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:45 | 4 | 5 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:05 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:49 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:16 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 10:01 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 7:01 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:06 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:38 | 4 | 37 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 12:51 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 11:46 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:58 | 4 | -15 | Opp touchdown | 24–10 |
| LV | Q3 7:12 | 4 | 35 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q3 5:14 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LV | Q3 2:04 | 2 | 40 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| LAC | Q3 1:19 | 5 | 37 | Field goal | 27–17 |
| LV | Q4 13:36 | 6 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 27–17 |
| LAC | Q4 11:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 27–17 |
| LV | Q4 9:05 | 12 | 78 | Turnover on downs | 27–17 |
| LAC | Q4 3:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 27–17 |
| LAC | Q4 2:32 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 30–17 |
| LV | Q4 1:46 | 5 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 30–17 |
| LAC | Q4 0:28 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–17 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
0.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.64
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.