Closing spread
ARI -6
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 10:26 | 14 | 80 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LA | Q1 4:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q1 2:47 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LA | Q2 14:45 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q2 11:09 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 7:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LA | Q2 6:29 | 2 | -13 | Punt | 3–17 |
| ARI | Q2 5:04 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| LA | Q2 1:06 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| ARI | Q2 0:09 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 6–24 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 6–24 |
| LA | Q3 13:23 | 2 | 37 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| ARI | Q3 12:42 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| LA | Q3 5:45 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 13–31 |
| ARI | Q3 4:13 | 5 | 31 | Opp touchdown | 19–31 |
| ARI | Q3 1:48 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 19–38 |
| LA | Q4 13:37 | 12 | 52 | Turnover | 19–38 |
| ARI | Q4 8:41 | 7 | 25 | Field goal | 19–41 |
| LA | Q4 3:57 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 19–48 |
| LA | Q4 3:09 | 8 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 19–48 |
| ARI | Q4 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–48 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 23/39 | 300 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 102 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.