Closing spread
SD -10.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:37 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 7:26 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:53 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 4:05 | 12 | 60 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 12:27 | 8 | 50 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 9:08 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 7:27 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 7:18 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 6:22 | 6 | 34 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 3:06 | 10 | 49 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 86 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| TEN | Q3 9:41 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 6–3 |
| LAC | Q3 6:29 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| TEN | Q3 2:35 | 8 | 54 | Missed field goal | 6–10 |
| LAC | Q4 14:03 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| TEN | Q4 8:45 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LAC | Q4 7:28 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 6–17 |
| TEN | Q4 3:56 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 6–17 |
| LAC | Q4 3:33 | 5 | 5 | End of half | 6–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 16/29 | 138 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Davis | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.