2007 · WC

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Todd Collins

14·35

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.006
  • 41.8%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.107
  • -0.199EPA / rush-0.158
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.48CPOE+2.40
  • 41.1%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.77
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. SEA are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3SEA @ WAS31–33WAS
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–SEA
WASQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:31536Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:20625Punt0–0
SEAQ1 7:06645Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 3:45416Punt0–7
SEAQ1 1:55419Punt0–7
WASQ1 0:101030Punt0–7
SEAQ2 10:40433Field goal0–10
WASQ2 8:5849Punt0–10
SEAQ2 6:4642Punt0–10
WASQ2 5:043-8Punt0–10
SEAQ2 4:2734Punt0–10
WASQ2 3:00623Turnover on downs0–10
SEAQ2 1:2136Punt0–10
WASQ2 0:47417End of half0–10
SEAQ3 15:00518Punt0–10
WASQ3 11:58516Punt0–10
SEAQ3 8:54752Field goal0–13
WASQ3 4:301368Touchdown7–13
SEAQ4 14:5324Turnover7–13
WASQ4 13:57342Touchdown14–13
SEAQ4 12:3800Missed field goal14–13
WASQ4 12:3632Missed field goal14–13
SEAQ4 11:37444Turnover14–13
WASQ4 9:4234Punt14–13
SEAQ4 8:03542Touchdown14–21
WASQ4 6:0610Opp touchdown14–28
WASQ4 5:38941Turnover on downs14–28
SEAQ4 2:413-1Punt14–28
WASQ4 1:52518Opp touchdown14–35
WASQ4 0:27112End of half14–35

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Todd Collins29/5026622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis20522.60
Ladell Betts3155.00
Mike Sellers341.30
Todd Collins221.00
Antwaan Randle El122.00

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck20/3222912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander15463.10
Maurice Morris4133.30
Matt Hasselbeck111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.30
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.60