2007 · WC

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Todd Collins

14·35

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.006
  • 41.8%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.107
  • -0.199EPA / rush-0.158
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.48CPOE+2.40
  • 41.1%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.77
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. SEA are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Todd Collins29/5026622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis20522.60
Ladell Betts3155.00
Mike Sellers341.30
Todd Collins221.00
Antwaan Randle El122.00

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck20/3222912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander15463.10
Maurice Morris4133.30
Matt Hasselbeck111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.30
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.60